Crypto Markets Brace for Fed Rate Cuts, Big Tech Earnings, and Trump–Xi Meeting

Cryptocurrency markets are poised for significant volatility as three major events converge this week. The Federal Reserve's anticipated 25-basis-point rate cut, coupled with earnings reports from tech behemoths and high-stakes geopolitical talks, could redefine liquidity conditions and risk appetite across digital asset markets.

Market participants are pricing in near-certainty (97.3% probability) of monetary easing when the FOMC meets Wednesday. This comes amid unusual opacity in economic data due to the government shutdown, forcing traders to scrutinize Chair Powell's press conference for clues about the Fed's inflation-employment balancing act.

Simultaneously, earnings season reaches its crescendo with Microsoft, Alphabet, and Meta reporting Wednesday followed by Apple and Amazon on Thursday. These results will test whether Big Tech's valuation premiums can sustain current crypto market correlations.

The Trump-Xi meeting adds another layer of complexity, with potential trade policy implications that could ripple through risk assets. Historically, such geopolitical events have produced asymmetric outcomes for Bitcoin and ethereum as hedges against fiat currency volatility.